The Modernization Memo

Quick housekeeping before anything else. You signed up to this list when it was called Idea Ignition and I wrote about whatever was on my mind, mostly cloud and startups. It has a new name, The Modernization Memo, and a sharper job: digital transformation in regulated industries and PE-backed companies, every fortnight, from the engineers doing the work. If that’s not useful to you, the unsubscribe link is at the bottom and there are genuinely no hard feelings. If it is, good, because this is the stuff we do all day and I have opinions.

The risk nobody priced

Why the change? Over the last year most of the interesting work coming through our door has been one of two conversations. A private equity firm wanting to know whether the technology inside a deal will actually hold. Or a compliance team trying to modernise systems where a wrong answer has regulatory consequences. It turns out twenty years of building things that aren’t allowed to fail (Mars rovers, sanctions platforms) is exactly the CV for both. So that’s what this newsletter is about now.

Here’s the pattern that made me want to write this issue. Every operating partner I’ve spoken to this year has the same story: a deal where the technology remediation came in at roughly twice what management represented. Not because anyone lied, exactly. The deck said “cloud-native platform.” The codebase said one brilliant, exhausted engineer, no tests, and a vendor contract renewing at the worst possible moment.

The commercial side of a deal gets QoE, a market study, and management diligence. The technology, which is often the thing the whole value-creation plan quietly assumes will keep up, gets a checkbox. Run late, priced as a rounding error, sometimes skipped entirely because the commercial thesis was strong. Then it surfaces after close, on the fund’s clock, at the fund’s expense.

In fairness, the honest version of this story cuts both ways. A decent chunk of the technical reads we run end with “the platform is fine, spend your worry elsewhere.” That’s a useful answer too. It just doesn’t make a good horror story, so nobody tells it.

My opinion, for what it’s worth: technology diligence should be run like QoE. Before the price is set, by people who read code rather than slides, ending in a dollar figure and a sequence, not a caveat. It pays for itself in the deals it doesn’t save you from.

Try this

We built something for exactly this: the Portfolio Tech-Risk Scorecard. Twelve questions, about ten minutes, no account, no sales call. It gives you an honest read on whether a platform can carry a thesis, what diligence will press on, and roughly what the fixes cost. If you’re assessing a company, it’s the ten-minute version of what a buyer’s engineers will eventually do. If you are the company, better you find it than they do.

Next issue: what technical due diligence actually costs, with real numbers, because apparently nobody wants to publish those. I do.

If you’ve got a war story about tech risk that surfaced after close, hit reply. I read everything.

Tom

Keep Reading